The intensity of the fall political campaign in the state is just around the corner as Labor Day approaches. The tweets, news releases and press conferences from political parties and candidates themselves are picking up as they all look for an edge that will help them in November.

The transparently partisan think tanks on the Right are working overtime too, producing a blizzard of polls that always seem to show Republicans ahead or closing fast in Democratic districts. If the surveys were your only source of information, you might start to wonder if Democrats can hold even one seat in the General Assembly.

The groups also pepper the media with poll findings on issues to see if they catch on and energize the base, issues like the completely reasonable move to establish nutritional standards at day care centers, portrayed as a "war on juice," or the manufactured flap about House Speaker Joe Hackney denying House chaplains the right to invoke Jesus in their prayers, portrayed of course as a war on Jesus.

Left out of most of the calls to arms among the religious right is the joint statement by Hackney and Minority Leader Paul Stam that they would review the guidelines concerning guest chaplains to make sure they "abide by applicable constitutional procedures."

It's Hackney they're targeting. He's the progressive Democrat after all.

There are certain to be other trial balloons floated to find an issue to rally the right-wing troops or more importantly to the cause, spark the interest of undecided independents or disenchanted Democrats. Maybe they will find something that works and maybe defending juice and alleging religious persecution might help decide a race or two in November, but this election is fundamentally about the economy and people's perception of where it's headed.

That's why there is increasing talk from Republicans now about unemployment in North Carolina and what they claim the budget shortfall and last year's tax increase to address it mean for the economy.

Hardly a day goes by without a statement or tweet or press release complaining that state tax rates and regulations are stifling job creation or claiming that state spending is out of control and legislative leaders are the reason the state faces a $3 billion budget shortfall next year.

None of that is true of course, though that's obviously not a consideration. And it also assumes North Carolina voters have been living in a bubble, unaware that virtually every other state in the country faces similar problems, stubbornly high unemployment rates, massive budget shortfalls, and anxious families worried about making ends meet.

North Carolina's legislative leaders didn't cause the national housing bubble to burst or force Wall Street to create bizarre and risky financial instruments that added accelerant to the economic meltdown. And they didn't bail out any banks out either, yet they are forced to cope with both the massive revenue shortfalls that resulted from the financial system's collapse and the understandable anger of families who watched banks being rescued while their own homes were foreclosed or their jobs eliminated.

North Carolina's economy is still staggering. Unemployment is still higher than it has been in a generation and the state budget shortfall next year will exceed $3 billion. No wonder people are angry and upset. They feel that way everywhere. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that states may face a combined $120 billion shortfall next year.

But North Carolina tax rates are not the problem. Neither are the decisions made by state lawmakers in the last two years to raise taxes to save thousands of teachers' jobs and preserve important services to the state most vulnerable citizens. If anything, lawmakers didn't do enough to stave off budget cuts that have damaged vital state institutions and the people who rely on them.

But North Carolina might be better prepared to dig its way out of the economic hole than many states. That's according to N.C. State economist Mike Walden, also an adjunct scholar at the Locke Foundation, who wrote recently that "North Carolina will continue to outperform the nation in this comeback of our economy. In fact, we were doing just that before the recession began."

That doesn't sound like a state where taxes and spending are too high. Business Facilities, a corporate relocation group, this week ranked North Carolina 4^th among states in economic growth potential and said it had the 6^th best business climate in the nation, not exactly evidence of oppressive tax rates and stifling regulation.

Neither Walden's optimism nor the lofty business rankings are mentioned in the political rhetoric of the Right or the polls that are designed to support it. That's not a surprise.

They want people to think things are terrible in North Carolina, only North Carolina, and that they are getting worse.

That's what their whole campaign really comes down to, convincing voters that things are so bad they need to turn the state over to people with no ideas how to fix them—other than standing up for juice.