The election is over if you listen to most of the pundits and pollsters. A Republican tsunami is coming in November in Washington and Raleigh and there's not much that Democrats can do about it.

National political analyst Charlie Cook appeared at Elon University this week and predicted that this would be a wave election similar to 1994.

Cook thinks that Republicans will gain enough seats to take control of the U.S. House and believes they have a one in three chance of taking over the U.S. Senate. 

He also says that like 16 years ago, the national wave will sweep many state and local Democrats out of office, reinforcing the growing buzz in Raleigh that Republicans will win enough legislative races to control the state Senate and maybe the state House too.

There are plenty of reasons for those forecasts, many of them tied to the still sputtering economy and high unemployment.  People are understandably angry and worried and are likely to take out their frustration on the Democrats. 

The economic meltdown didn't happen overnight, it took years to develop. The recovery hasn't come overnight either but that doesn't matter much to people who are struggling and scared and they appear ready to lash out with their votes in November.

But it would be a mistake to characterize the current mood of the electorate as fully supportive of the Republican proposals to shrink government and slash taxes on the wealthy.  Cook says the polls don't predict a pro-Republican vote, they predict an anti-Democratic vote.

Polls show people don't trust Republicans any more than Democrats to solve the country's problems. On many issues they trust Republicans less.  They are angry and afraid. They are not newly converted followers of a right-wing ideology, despite the claims otherwise by the conservative think tanks and pundits who are busy revising history to try to capitalize on the public anxiety.

One prominent right-wing pundit predicting a Republican sweep recently mentioned that the Wall Street bailout had "at least the acquiescence of former President George W. Bush," when it was designed, negotiated, and promoted by the Bush Administration and signed by President Bush.  That's a little bit more than acquiescence.

The right-wing doesn't want people to remember the Bush years, they want them to forget and blame Obama for the past and present.  But the polls show that's not working. People are blaming everybody, reinforcing the notion that the Republican gains in November will be rooted in frustration not an ideological shift.

That may not matter to Democrats on election night if their losses are as large as predicted. But those forecasts are not only based on what people think of Democrats and Republicans, they are built on the assumptions and poll numbers showing that Republicans are significantly more enthusiastic this year, and more likely to vote.

The most recent Gallup Poll found that people were evenly split between the two parties when asked how they planned to vote in November.  Even many of the obviously biased conservative polls show big margins for Republicans only when "most likely" voters are counted.

That means the election is not over. Democrats have two months to figure out how to close the enthusiasm gap to change their registered voters into likely voters. 

The Republicans will gain seats in Congress and the General Assembly in November.  That much is certain. The question is will they gain enough to take control.  Despite much of the conventional wisdom and the momentum it helps create, it still seems a bit early for Republicans to be measuring the drapes in Washington or Raleigh.