Palin choice may inadvertently help Democratic nominee pass his final test
There's an old saying in the legal profession (usually delivered by law professors to their first year classes with a twinkle in their eye) that goes like this:
"If the facts are on your side, pound on the facts. If the law is on your side, pound on the law. And if neither the facts nor the law are on your side, pound on the table."
Although he never practiced law or, apparently ever paid much attention in school, this appears to be a lesson that John McCain absorbed well at some point in his life. One week into the Sarah Palin era, one thing is unmistakably clear: the Arizona senator believes that pounding on the table is his best and only hope to win the affections of a majority of voters.
To heck with sober policy debates about health care, the national debt and the Geneva Convention or high-minded dialogue about geopolitical strategy. A hard look at the polls in states that McCain simply must have (like North Carolina, Missouri and Michigan) has clearly convinced the Republican nominee that the only way for him to win is to rev up the most ardent and emotional part of the conservative base - religious conservatives who have, at times, been willing to vote against their own economic and personal well-being based on emotional appeals over social issues.
And since, given his own unpopularity with the far right, McCain was literally incapable of raising his fist to do the table pounding himself, he did the next best thing - he found someone to pound the table for him. In an election that all of his advisors had convinced him was about the country's overriding desire for change, McCain chose the only available course to someone whose policy promises are virtually indistinguishable from the incumbent with record low approval marks: he found someone who would help him create the impression of change - even if it was only an impression.
So far, the move has worked out about as well as McCain could have hoped. The news media, faced with the most obscure running mate since Spiro Agnew (and the first since Agnew to have literally zero experience in national affairs) has engaged in a week long spasm of 24/7 Palin-mania as it has tried to compress the ordinary political vetting that national political figures must endure into a few days. This, in turn, has revved up the social conservative troops even more as it has allowed McCain operatives to assail the media as "elitist" for having the temerity to have raised questions about Palin's razor-thin resume.
Not taking the bait
The only flaw in the McCain strategy that has emerged thus far (and it is likely a big one) has been in its failure to provoke the desired response from his opponent. In addition to inflaming the jury (or, in this case, the base), the second goal of the "pound on the table" strategy is to sucker one's opponent to get down in the muck: to get him or her to engage in an "oh yeah, sez who?" debate over irrelevancies that will cause the jury (voters) to forget what's really at issue and at-stake.
To the credit of the Obama, Joe Biden, and their advisors, however, the Democratic team seems smarter than that. Maybe it's because both men are sharp lawyers and maybe it's just good political instincts, but whatever the case both seem to have realized that their political base is already energized. The events of the past eight years combined with even a few days of the McCain/Palin convention were enough to send progressives throughout the country diving for their check books and credit cards.
Perhaps even more importantly, both Obama and Biden seem to grasp intuitively that the main challenge to their winning in November is the concern amongst some swing voters (like the surprisingly large number in North Carolina), that Obama is somehow untested and incapable of handling the heat of the Oval Office. Fortunately, for their candidacy, it does not seem likely that anyone can sucker Obama into getting off his game and revealing some kind of lack of discipline. Anyone who doubts this should force themselves to check out the Illinois senator's unflappable appearance with far right talk show screamer, Bill O'Reilly.
Like veteran courtroom lawyers at their best who know when to spur the jury's emotions and when to return to a plainspoken restatement of the facts and the law, Obama and Biden have resisted the temptation to take the bait thrown out by McCain in the form of Sarah Palin. Both have soberly praised the Alaska governor for her personal story and then turned the discussion back on McCain and his support for Bush - as if to say "Counselor, that's a very interesting theory you've propounded, but what does it have to do with the issue before the court?"
This is not to say that either will or should ignore Palin's impending rants. Progressive voters will expect their candidates not to be wallflowers who cede the debate over important social issues.
Neither should the two men allow themselves to be called names or have their personal integrity impugned (as Palin has already tried with her assault on Obama's early years as a community organizer). This was one of John Kerry's key mistakes during the whole "swift boat" fiasco.
Again, however, Obama and Biden seem to get this. Obama's responses to the attacks on him that Palin read from a teleprompter the other night (in which he has noted that the other side wants to make the election about him and that he wants to make it about voters and their lives) have been sharp and appropriately barbed, but full of toughness and confidence.
Looking ahead
As voters prepare to cast their votes in the weeks ahead (mail-in voting in North Carolina starts in just a few days!) it appears that McCain's last, creative, hardball gambit may, inadvertently prove to be the thing that pushes Barack Obama over the finish line.
After two years in the crucible of national presidential politics, the Democratic nominee has demonstrated to voters that he is uncommonly intelligent, thoughtful and inspiring. The only thing he has not had the opportunity to fully convince them of is his ability to take a punch from someone who will simply try to goad him into an emotional, bare-knuckled political brawl.
Now, with the nomination of Sarah Palin, Obama has the chance. And thus far, it appears that the Obama team is steering a calm, steady and forceful course - exactly what they will need to do to get elected and to have a successful presidency.
