Fitzsimon File

The battle to be the next Speaker of the House continues to dominate Raleigh’s political world. Both the News and Observer and the Charlotte Observer published stories in recent days with the latest on the record news about the race.

Despite the scandals surrounding him, House Speaker Jim Black is widely considered the frontrunner in the crowded field seeking the top job in the House.  Depending on the source, Black reportedly has commitments from 25 to 40 of the 68 House Democrats.

The actual number is probably closer to 30 than 40, but none of the other candidates have close to that many. The three other candidates waging serious campaigns are current House Majority Leader Joe Hackney, former Speaker Dan Blue, and Rep. Jim Crawford, who was head of the powerful House Appropriations Committee last session.

Many of Crawford’s potential supporters are conservative Democrats from Eastern North Carolina now firmly in Black’s camp. Crawford told the Charlotte Observer that he would support Black too if Black stays in the race.

That is the operative phrase, if Black stays in the race. Before November’s election, it was widely expected that even if Black were reelected to the House, he would not seek reelection as Speaker.  

Other political observers who thought Black might run for Speaker widely discounted his chances after many House members said privately they would not support Black for another term.

But now the beginning of the session is just seven weeks away and Black has many more commitments than any other candidate and more than one political consultant believes that if the election were held this week, Black would be reelected.

Black’s support is a startling reminder of how unusual the race for Speaker is. People not involved in the legislative process are mystified how Black could be a serious candidate when several of his close allies have been indicted, convicted, or pleaded guilty to various criminal charges and Black himself remains under a dark cloud of suspicion.

But Black’s supporters are unfailingly loyal. Some of the loyalty comes from Black’s decision to elevate them to leadership roles they had never held. Other members believe they owe their election to the House to Black for his political contributions and special projects approved for their legislative district that helped win the support of local voters.

Outside the House Democratic Caucus, there are Democrats who worry what Black’s reelection would mean for 2008, when Republicans will mount a statewide campaign focusing on the scandals surrounding Black in the last year.  That message didn’t work in November, but it was hard to spread in an off year election with no statewide race and the money that it attracts.

The intense scrutiny of Black by the media is likely to continue as well, and no one expects the federal investigation to end any time soon, providing more grist for the headlines and rumor mills, even if Black is not charged with any crime.

Some House Democrats do share the concern.  More than a handful say they will not vote for Black for Speaker again under any circumstance, but they are a small minority.

Those House members and Democrats across the state are hoping for another scenario, that an “anybody but Black faction arises in the House,” possibly prompted by prominent statewide Democratic leaders worried about potential Democratic losses in 2008 and the legislative agenda this session being overshadowed by constant attention to Black’s potential legal troubles.

Without that organized campaign against him, the Speaker’s race remains Jim Black’s to lose, which may be the most surprising election result of all from 2006. 

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This entry was posted on Monday, December 4th, 2006 at 4:44 pm and is filed under Fitzsimon File. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.