Weekly Briefing

Lawmakers would fund, build new six-lane road using out-of-date numbers

As has been reported in this space previously, one of the most troubling decisions by budget writers in the state House of Representatives this spring has been the decision to take $25 million out of the state's General Fund (the source of dollars for education, crime prevention and human services, etc…) and to redirect it toward helping to subsidize the construction of a new six-lane toll road often referred to as the Triangle Expressway.

At a time in which many essential services like affordable housing, mental health and probation remain badly stretched and underfunded (and in which the state Department of Transportation is having trouble keeping up with basic maintenance of existing roads and bridges), the idea that the state would embark upon a major new construction project of this kind can only be described as, at best, an example of questionable priorities. 

Now, however, it appears that there is even more reason to question the wisdom of the proposed project. A review of supporting documents upon which the Triangle Expressway is based reveals that some of the key numbers and assumptions are badly out-of-date. This is especially true in light of the rapid and unprecedented changes in the worldwide demand for petroleum and the impact that rising prices are having, and will continue to have, on automobile use.

Old data

The Triangle Expressway is the name given to a combination of two proposed roads known as the Triangle Parkway and the Western Wake Freeway. Together they would total around 16 miles and provide a freeway route for drivers from Route 147 (the "Durham Freeway") to the Holly Springs area in southwestern Wake County. Much of the new road would be considered part of the proposed I-540 "outer loop." 

The premise behind the roads is that they constitute a necessary response to a growing population and increased automobile traffic. A look at the documents, however, calls this premise into question.

The revenue and traffic projections for the two roads were prepared for the Turnpike Authority by a private firm known as Wilbur Smith Associates. Though quite detailed in many ways, the reports evidence a glaring problem: they were completed in the spring of 2006 when the price of gasoline was around $2.50 per gallon. Even more importantly, the traffic inputs on which many of the calculations were based appear to date back to 2002, when the price of gas was around $1.25 per gallon. One of the study's basic assumptions is that: "Motor fuel will remain in adequate supply and no national or regional emergency would arise that would abnormally restrict the use of motor vehicles."

Obviously, this is a huge problem. As has been well-documented of late, the skyrocketing cost of fuel in recent months has had profound effects on traffic patterns and highway usage.

According to this week's Washington Post, ("Fuel Prices Challenge Cars' Reign"), there appear to be fundamental shifts taking place in the U.S. transportation economy.

"In a society nurtured on cheap gasoline, the high fuel prices are having disparate effects: the end of free pizza deliveries at major franchises, a plunge in the sales of sport-utility vehicles, a steep drop in the price of houses that are far from jobs or mass transit.

Federal officials have also reported the first decline in miles driven on U.S. roads since 1979, business at roadside convenience stores has slowed, and the tourism industry is bracing for a downturn this summer. Nationwide, about 8 percent of Americans say they have changed their commuting patterns and are taking public transportation, according to a survey conducted by NPD Group, a market research firm. The same share of respondents said they would vacation closer to home this summer because of rising gas prices."

The article goes on:

"According to the Federal Highway Administration, estimated vehicle miles traveled on U.S. roads for March fell 4.3 percent, or 11 billion miles, compared with March 2007. It was the first time that March travel on public roads fell since 1979 and the biggest yearly drop for any month in history…. ‘For 30 years, we've operated under the assumption that there are going to be more cars on the road,' said David Portalatin, automotive analyst at NPD Group. ‘So we've developed drive-through windows, quick lube stations. We've done everything we can do service this on-the-go consumer. The biggest news is we've reached the point where we are starting to see some fundamental changes in consumer driving behaviors.'

If gasoline reaches $5 or $6 per gallon in the near future, even more profound reductions in vehicle miles traveled and land development patterns will be sure to follow.

Implications for North Carolina  

None of this is necessarily intended as an indictment of the Turnpike Authority or their consultants. Roads take time to build and must always include estimates and long-term projections based on the information that is available.

The recent dramatic shifts in the world demand for petroleum, however, are clearly exceptional and go well beyond the kind of normal adjustments that one might expect to apply to such estimates. Indeed, if they are the herald of the sea change that some experts expect, there is every reason for lawmakers to demand, at a minimum, a new study before plowing ahead.

Other reasons for doubt

The soaring price of gasoline and rapidly changing transportation patterns are not the only reason to question the state's plans to embark upon the construction of several new toll roads. As Dr. Steve Jackson of the N.C. Budget and Tax Center pointed out on The Progressive Pulse blog a couple of weeks ago, the dawn of "The Toll Road Era" in North Carolina would change transportation in our state in some profoundly negative ways.

"When a toll road company or authority has toll targets, you can bet your last dollar for gas that they will be lobbying or have written into contracts that alternative routes can't compete too much so as to lower toll revenues….At the more benign level, these clauses mean frontage roads and alternative routes get new (slower) speed limits, more traffic lights and traffic calming techniques designed to reduce and slow traffic….

At the far-from-benign level, there are widespread experiences elsewhere where toll projects have resulted in street and road closures in order to force traffic onto tolled roads, or reduced maintenance programs so as to reduce capacity and drivability of alternate routes. Or how about this one: limiting public transportation options to ensure toll revenue targets are met.

The issue of fairness in the Toll Road Era is not just about paying to drive but is also about the effect toll projects have on the rest of our transportation infrastructure. Toll projects must generate a revenue stream. Reducing competition or other transportation options is a logical strategy toll project companies and authorities pursue to secure that revenue stream and make targets."

The bottom line

At their best, toll roads like the planned Triangle Expressway offer a flawed and inequitable model for adding transportation infrastructure. In the worst case scenario (as appears to be brewing in North Carolina today) such a road can amount to a wasteful and obsolete boondoggle even before it's completed. In an era of $4+/gal.gasoline and $130/bbl. crude oil, lawmakers would do well to think again before they give the "go ahead" to building a road that may ultimately be too expensive for anyone to use.       

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 11th, 2008 at 6:48 am and is filed under Weekly Briefing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.