NC Policy Watch with Fitzsimon & Schofield » Special Features

Study: NC Voters More Independent, Urban and Non-White

Bob Hall — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 18:43:35 +0000

A new county-by-county analysis of North Carolina voters points to dramatic shifts in the past decade that will likely influence campaign strategy for hot elections this year for Richard Burr’s US Senate seat and for control of the General Assembly.

“The growth of urban and suburban counties and surge of independent voters means the political parties must scramble to win elections with a smaller share of reliably loyal voters on their side,” said Bob Hall of the election watchdog group Democracy North Carolina. “Stereotypes of the Republican rural conservative and the straight-ticket, African-American Democrat are giving way to a more complex profile of the North Carolina electorate.”

The numbers tell the story. For example, while the registration rolls of Democrats and

Republicans have grown by 11% and 16% respectively since 2000, the number of voters choosing to not affiliate with any party soared by 83%. In fact, the 627,500 new unaffiliated voters are over half of the 1,162,000 voters added during the decade. {Some voters move away or die as new ones register, so the focus here is on the net change.] See complete data table at http://www.democracy-nc.org/downloads/NCVoterReg2000-2010.xls

Unaffiliated voters now make up nearly one fourth [23%] of the 6.1 million registered voters in the state, compared to about one in seven voters [15%] in 2000.

Similarly, while the number of white voters increased by 572,500 or 15% to 4.46 million, the number of African American voters jumped by 383,500 or 41% to 1.32 million. More than half the increase in voters of color for the decade came in 2008, when Barack Obama won the Democratic primary and general election. While 83% of adult whites are now registered, the figure is now 87% for people of color. But contrary to the portrait of blacks as loyal Democrats, 21% of the non- whites who registered in 2008 signed up as Unaffiliated.

Accurate figures for Latino voters are hampered by changing questions about race and ethnicity on voter registration forms over the decade; ethnicity was not asked until 2002. As of Jan. 2, 2010, there were 72,750 Hispanic/Latino voters, a substantial jump from 41,900 at the beginning of 2008. One third are now registered as Unaffiliated, 46% as Democrats and 20% as Republicans.

Democrats can be thankful for the 2008 registration surge; more than 90% of their net gain in members for the decade came during that one year. Still, Democrats lost their overall share of the electorate, going from 50.6% of registered voters 10 years ago to 45.4% now, the first time in a century that the party has started a decade with less than half the state’s registered voters.

The 2008 election also showed the growing muscle of the state’s urban counties, which will likely be the key focus in the 2010 U.S. senate race. The seven most populous counties in the state now have 37% of all the registered voters. In 2008, those seven counties (Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Durham and Buncombe) gave Barack Obama, Kay Hagan and Beverly Perdue a lead of more than 300,000 votes each, enough to overcome the rest of the state’s majority support for their Republican opponent.

The next 13 counties in size have 22% of the state’s voters, and 11 of them strongly favored Republican statewide candidates in 2008. They include Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Johnston, Onslow, Davidson, Iredell, Catawba, Alamance, Randolph and Rowan.

Together, these 20 counties account for 60% of the state’s voters, and they are expected to be the central battleground for the U.S. Senate contest in 2010.

Young voters age 18 to 25 now make up 12% of the electorate, an increase from 10% a decade ago, and they provided significant energy in the 2008 election. However, there is no guarantee they will be engaged in the 2010 election: While 60% of the state’s registered young voters turned out in 2008 [compared to 70% of all voters], Democracy NC found that only 4% voted in the cities with November 2009 elections [compared to 16% of all eligible voters].

Overall, the number of registered voters has increased 24% over the decade, while the adult population only climbed 19%. But the pace of new registrations has slowed considerably. In the past four months [mid-September to mid-January], the rolls have grown by only 19,000 voters. During a similar period two years ago, 60,000 voters were added to the rolls.

The decade begins with 84% of the voting-age population registered, up from 81% in January 2000. Democracy NC estimates that about one million citizens are currently not registered to vote, or 15% of the eligible population.

[It’s difficult to get precise numbers on how many eligible adults are not registered in North Carolina, because (a) the voter registration rolls are inflated with some people who have moved away and (b) the voting-age population includes non-citizens. Data for some counties can show a high registration rate, or even more registered voters than resident adults, particularly the counties with a significant university or non-citizen population or where the local board of elections conducts infrequent mailings to identify voters who have moved. The chart with this release calculates the Voting-Age Population minus Registered Voters to produce each county’s “VAP Unregistered,” but these numbers should be treated as approximations because of the imprecise

nature of the underlying data.]

Other highlights in the data assembled by Democracy North Carolina from the State Board of Elections and State Data Center:

● Wake County now has more adults than Mecklenburg County – and more unregistered voters.

● Seven of the 10 counties with the fastest growth of Unaffiliated voters are along the coast, no doubt fueled by Northerners who are unsure how they align with local party politics.

● Cumberland, Onslow and Wayne – the state’s three big military counties with chronically low voter participation – are among the 10 counties that posted the biggest increases in their registration rates, with 13 to 20 percentage point gains compared to the statewide 3 point gain.

● Statewide, Democrats added 10,600 more registrants than Republicans during the decade, thanks to gains in the big counties, particularly in 2008. Republicans have added more members than Democrats since 2000 in 79 of the 100 counties, but in five counties Democrats surpassed Republicans by 167,000 registrations – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham and Cumberland.

Ten Years after Promise, NC’s Student Achievement Gap Persists

Diane Morris — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 14:41:24 +0000

Ten years ago, North Carolina's leaders promised to dramatically close or even eliminate the academic achievement gap between white students and black, Hispanic and American Indian students. However, a new report from the North Carolina Justice Center shows that, based on the results of various achievement tests, the gap is virtually unchanged from 10 years ago.

"A decade ago, state leaders studied the achievement gap, floated some recommendations to close it, and said changes were coming to ensure minority students succeed," said Stephen Jackson, policy analyst with the NC Justice Center. "Today, it's clear that process achieved little. The will to solve this most fundamental of problems has waned and tens of thousands of children have been and continue to be deprived of a quality education as a result."

The report, available at http://www.ncjustice.org/sites/default/files/2010 Achievement Gap report.pdf, looks at end-of-grade and end-of-course tests and finds that the gaps between the scores of white students and minority students are just as wide, if not wider, than they were in the 2000-01 school year. For example, in the 2008-09 school year, 43.6 percent of black students in grades 3 through 8 passed the end-of-grade math and reading tests, compared with 76.7 percent of white students. That 33.1 percentage-point difference between proficient black and white students in 2008-2009 was virtually unchanged from the 30 percentage-point gap between those same groups during the 2000-2001 school year.

Other tests show the same disparity. The National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP), which is administered to a sample of fourth grade and eighth grade students in every state, shows that since 2000 North Carolina has made no progress in narrowing performance gaps between white and minority students. For example, on 2009 math assessments, black students had an average score that was 28 points lower than white students at the fourth grade level, compared to a 23-point difference in 2000. At the eighth grade level, black students had an average math score that was 35 points lower than white students in both 2000 and 2009.

"Unless closing the gap becomes a priority for our state's leaders, another decade will pass in which thousands of students leave our schools without fully developing their talents and realizing their potential," said Melinda Lawrence, executive director of the NC Justice Center. "The social and economic cost of those lost talents is a price North Carolina cannot afford to pay."

Employee Free Choice Act is a critical step to help North Carolina workers

Jeff Shaw — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:54:06 +0000

North Carolina's unionized workers earn better pay and benefits than non-union counterparts; the Employee Free Choice Act would help workers organize

North Carolina's low unionization rate partially explains the state's dismal standing in pay and benefits for working families, a new report says - but the federal Employee Free Choice Act is "a critical step in the right direction for North Carolina's workers."

"North Carolina has the lowest unionization rate in America, at just 3.5 percent," said Dr. Stephen Jackson, a policy analyst at the NC Justice Center's Budget & Tax Center and the report's author. "Because unions help workers obtain better pay and health benefits for their families, it's no surprise that this low rate traps many families in poverty."

But the Employee Free Choice Act would help unions organize more effectively by discouraging well-funded (and often illegal) attempts by employers to intimidate workers.

As Jackson writes in a special federal policy update of the Justice Center Legislative Bulletin, released this morning, "[n]ationwide in 2007 alone, there were 29,000 documented cases of intimidation or coercion by employers during secret ballot election campaigns. Compare that to the 42 cases by unions in the previous 70 years."

The Employee Free Choice Act would allow a majority of workers to express their desire to unionize through majority sign-up. It would also increase sanctions against illegal employer behavior, such as firing pro-union employees.

Across the country, union workers gain better wages than their non-union counterparts. This is true in North Carolina as well.

"Between 2003 and 2007," Jackson writes, "North Carolina unionized workers were paid more than their non-union peers at every point in the wage distribution except among the top 10 percent of wage earners, where union membership appeared to have no effect on wages either way."

Unions especially benefited low- and middle-income North Carolinians, where union members among the bottom half of workers earned an extra 11-14 percent per hour over their non-union counterparts.

North Carolina's median income just misses the bottom 10 American states, coming in 39^th. Lack of widespread unionization, said Jackson is one reason why.

"The evidence is clear," said Jackson. "Passage of the Employee Free Choice Act will allow workers to collectively bargain more effectively by short-circuiting the bullying and often illegal anti-union activity used by employers. That will, in turn, help North Carolina's working families earn fair wages and benefits."

The report is available online at http://www.ncjustice.org/?q=node/415 .

Jobs-Centered Development: The Need for a New Approach

John Quinterno — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:04:36 +0000

Over the past decade, jobs-centered development has emerged as a promising alternative to the South’s traditional strategies of economic and workforce development. Following the Second World War, southern leaders waged an aggressive campaign to transform the regional economy. To this end, officials mixed public policies with private market forces to create jobs and cultivate a more skilled workforce. In doing so, they created a distinctive model of economic growth: a model based on luring industries south by offering a low-cost business climate, subsidizing key expenses, and providing customized workforce training.

Viewed in one light, this strategy has paid impressive dividends. In little more than six decades, the South has turned itself from a national economic laggard into a leader. Between 1980 and 2000, for instance, regional per capita personal income – an important yardstick of economic well-being – rose by 43 percent after adjusting for inflation. On an annualized basis, nine southern states recorded rates of per capita income growth at or above the national one.

Yet this prosperity largely has bypassed the South’s low-income people and places. The region continues to trail the nation on vital measures of economic and social well-being and remains America’s poorest section. In 2007, some 8.5 million Southerners – 15 percent of the region’s population – had incomes below the federal poverty level; another 10.8 million individuals had incomes too high to be officially poor but too low to make ends meet.

By the late 1990s, it was becoming obvious that the economic challenges confronting low-income Southerners and communities were a by-product of the region’s customary approach to economic and workforce development – an approach which revolves around selling the region on the basis of low labor and business costs and pays little attention to questions of economic equity. The guiding assumption has been that robust job creation will resolve social ills like poverty and inequality. This has not happened.

In response, regional officials have begun experimenting with new methods of job creation and skills formation. While these experiments have occurred in a piecemeal, decentralized manner, they share enough common characteristics to form a distinct field of practice known as jobs-centered development. This model focuses on growing a regional economy by cultivating the skilled workforces demanded by local industries and connecting area residents – especially low- income ones – to quality jobs, educational opportunities, and career pathways.

Understanding the need for jobs-centered development as an alternative model of regional advancement requires a familiarity with the shortcomings of traditional methods. Specifically, leaders interested in pursuing jobs-centered development must possess an awareness of the extent of low-wage work in the South; a recognition of how low-wage work flows from the region's standard approach to economic and workforce development; and a familiarity with the basic goals, components, and assumptions of jobs-centered development. An understanding of the lessons learned so far and the challenges posed by the ongoing recession also is needed.

The Mary Reynolds Babcock Foundation recently released a study entitle "Jobs-Centered Development: The Need for a New Approach " that looks at the lessons learned and the ongoing challenges.

Blue Cross Anti-Reform Postcards – Strike Back

Adam Searing — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:06:31 +0000

Last Friday at the Progressive Pulse, we reported on NC Blue Cross' statewide nasty postcard campaign aimed at Senator Hagan. The postcards are meant for people to fill out and are postage paid to go to Hagan's office with a message against a public health care option and "government-run" health care.

Just since last night, I've heard from many people all over North Carolina outraged that their premium dollars are being used to fund a scurrilous effort to try and block commonsense health reform. The answer?

Strike back using Blue's own postcards and hijack Blue's own campaign!

The postcards are prepaid to send to Senator Hagan's office. Simply take a bright red pen or marker and write clearly in large print on the postcard over the innuendo:

Sorry Blue Cross. I support affordable health plans and a public health plan option!

Then send the postcard in and we can feel good that NC Blue Cross is paying to deliver our message to Senator Hagan. Second, we will make sure that Senator Hagan's office knows that many of the postcards coming in will be marked with our messages. This will anger Blue Cross and hobble their efforts.

Let's not just get mad at NC Blue's outrageous actions against desperately-needed health reform - Let's strike back!

State budget drops to lowest level in 13 years after accounting for inflation and population changes

Jeff Shaw — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 13:36:04 +0000

A study of North Carolina's General Fund reveals the deep impact of the recession on tax revenues.

North Carolina government spending per person has fallen to its lowest rate in 13 years, a report released today finds. This provides further evidence that balancing the state budget using cuts alone was simply an impossible task.

The $4.6 billion state budget shortfall - 22 percent of the state's General Fund for fiscal year 2009-10 - forced state lawmakers into difficult choices. Significant service cuts were enacted, such as deep cuts to mental health services and cuts in funding to local school districts.

Rather than allowing the quality of public services to retreat to such an extent, lawmakers opted to take a balanced approach, filling the budget gap with spending cuts, federal assistance and $1 billion in higher taxes.

Even with this tax increase, however, state appropriations per person have fallen to their lowest level in thirteen years.

Without the tax increases adopted this year, state appropriations per person would have dropped even further, to the lowest level since fiscal year 1992-93.

"Merely scaling back the increase in spending of the past few years would not have been sufficient to cover the budget shortfall," the report from the North Carolina Justice Center's Budget & Tax Center concludes.

The study, "Down in the Valley: General Fund Appropriations Per Person Lowest in 13 Years," examined inflation-adjusted General Fund appropriations — the primary portion of the state budget that is funded by income and sales taxes, which pays for education, health and human services, justice, public safety and other public needs - over the past several decades.

The report is available online at http://www.ncjustice.org/?q=node/383

Claims that state tax increases cause job loss are unfounded, report says

Jeff Shaw — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 13:56:28 +0000

Raising revenue preserves jobs, keeping North Carolina on equal footing with peer states

Far from costing jobs, the tax increases passed by North Carolina's legislature are likely to forestall job losses in both the private and public sectors, a new study by the North Carolina Budget & Tax Center finds.

Claims that state tax increases cause unemployment to rise are "based on a highly flawed methodology," the BTC Brief argues, and the most credible research suggest that "tax increases will not hurt the private-sector job market."

By preventing cuts in state programs, the report argues, the $1.3 billion revenue package will also prevent job loss both directly (by preserving state jobs) and indirectly (by preserving capital flow that stimulates the economy.

Also, worrying about job loss in North Carolina due to tax increases ignores the fact that other states are also enacting tax increases - meaning that North Carolina's tax levels relative to its peers will remain unchanged.

The report's key findings:

North Carolina's recently enacted state tax increases are small relative to the size of the state economy. Moreover, the fact that other states are also enacting tax increases should leave North Carolina's tax levels unchanged relative to its peers.
Claims that state tax increases cause job loss are based on a highly flawed methodology; examination of credible research suggests the tax increases will not hurt the private-sector job market..

The report, "Wishful Thinking: Claims That State Tax Increases Cause Job Loss Are Unfounded," is available online at http://ncjustice.org/?q=node/368

Crucial Conversation Luncheon: The Crisis in Corrections

Staff — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 06:30:18 +0000

With North Carolina's economy and budget in crisis, state leaders of all political parties and philosophies are demanding - more than ever - a solution to the mushrooming growth in corrections expenditures. Can North Carolina gain control of this unsustainable budget-buster while, at the same time, improving both public safety and outcomes for offenders? If we follow the example of a growing number of states, the answer to this question may well be a resounding "yes." Come learn more at a very special, mid-summer

NC Policy Watch Crucial Conversation luncheon-

The Crisis in Corrections: What can North Carolina learn from other states about how to contain the explosive growth in prisons

Click here to register for this event
Co-sponsored by the Carolina Justice Policy Center

Featuring:

State Rep. Jerry Madden of the Texas House of Representatives. Rep. Madden is a businessman, a graduate of West Point, a Vietnam veteran, a nine-term Republican lawmaker and nationally recognized expert on corrections policy.

and

Michael Thompson, Executive Director of a special project of the national Council of State Governments known as the Justice Center. He has worked on criminal justice policy issues at the Council since 1997 and has helped spur and facilitate bi-partisan corrections reform efforts in several states.

When: Monday, July 13th
(registration @ 11:30 am, presentation begins at 12 noon and concludes by 1:30 pm)

Where: Marbles Kids Museum, 201 E. Hargett Street, Raleigh NC 27601

Cost: $10 (includes a box lunch) Pre-registration required

Click here to register for this event

Crucial Conversation: The Crisis in Corrections

Staff — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:48:48 +0000

NC Policy Watch Crucial Conversation luncheon-

The Crisis in Corrections: What can North Carolina learn from other states about how to contain the explosive growth in prisons?

Click here to register for this event
Co-sponsored by the Carolina Justice Policy Center

Featuring:

and

When: Monday, July 13th
(registration @ 11:30 am, presentation begins at 12 noon and concludes by 1:30 pm)

Where: Marbles Kids Museum, 201 E. Hargett Street, Raleigh NC 27601

Cost: $10 (includes a box lunch) Pre-registration required

Click here to register for this event

Report on Health Care in North Carolina

Staff — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 18:04:20 +0000

A new report released by HCAN today finds the pool of people in North Carolina covered by health insurance is shrinking coupled with the huge increases in costs over the last decade. Click here for a copy of the report Health Insurance Coverage in North Carolina Keeps Shrinking as Premiums, Family Costs Continue Climbing